Timeline
What has happened, and what is coming. Updated as events develop.
What happened — Events to date
Mark Carney at Davos: "The old world order is not coming back"
Canada's Prime Minister declared the American-led rules-based order over at the World Economic Forum. A veiled but unmistakable condemnation of the Trump administration's approach to alliances, trade, and international governance. The Churchill parallel was noted.
Project 2025: The blueprint becomes policy
Trump's Schedule F executive order is signed. Up to 50,000 federal employees lose civil service protection. The Heritage Foundation's 920-page policy blueprint starts becoming operational reality. The Department of Government Efficiency begins dismantling federal workforce capacity.
The Iran war begins
Operation Epic Fury and Operation Iron Strike: US and Israel launch joint air campaign against Iran, assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during ongoing nuclear negotiations. Iran retaliates within hours with missile and drone strikes across multiple fronts, including embassies and oil infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz effectively closes
Iranian missiles and naval assets make the strait too dangerous for commercial shipping. Insurers withdraw coverage. Shipowners refuse to risk crews and vessels. Approximately 20–25% of globally traded oil is taken off the market through logistics disruption, not production cuts. The dual blockade (Iran closing Hormuz; US counter-blockading vessels heading to Iranian ports) becomes the new normal.
Ceasefire attempt collapses
A ceasefire brokered via Pakistan is agreed in principle. Iran accepts terms. The strait does not reopen. The ceasefire is nominal. Iran continues Hormuz operations. The counter-blockade continues. US and Iran are in a state of suspended conflict with the strait effectively closed.
Urea prices double
Industrial nitrogen fertiliser prices roughly double from around £510/tonne to £950/tonne. The mechanism: a significant proportion of internationally traded fertiliser moves through or near Hormuz. With the strait effectively closed, supply is constrained. The food price trajectory changes permanently. The 2026 growing season will produce a lower yield than would have been achieved without the disruption.
Steve Keen's warning: famine in 3 months
On the Diary of a CEO podcast, Steve Keen warns that the Hormuz closure is blocking 20–30% of global fertiliser supply. Without artificial nitrogen fertiliser, the world's agricultural capacity drops to roughly what it can sustain without industrial agriculture. His specific numbers are extreme, but the mechanism is structurally sound.
Six analysts, three countries, one thesis
Multiple independent analysts — Steve Keen, Richard Murphy, Jiang Xueqin, plus the Project 2025 document and the Trump expansionism analysis — converge on the same structural picture. The physical shock (Hormuz, energy, food), the financial fragility (debt, AI bubble), the institutional degradation (executive aggrandisement, court defiance), and the geopolitical realignment (US as unreliable ally) are all happening simultaneously and compounding each other.
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire violated within 24 hours
The conditional ceasefire announced by Washington on June 1 is violated by Israel within 24 hours. IDF destroys bridges above the Litani River, continues ground operations in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah rejects the ceasefire framework. The Gaza ceasefire is similarly unreliable. The pattern is consistent: ceasefire announcements are diplomatic gestures, not reliable commitments.
Iranian drones hit Kuwait airport
Iranian drones heavily damage Kuwait International Airport — 1 dead, 63 injured, 30 ballistic missiles and drones launched. Kuwait is a US ally. This is not a proxy incident. This is a direct attack on a US-allied state's civilian infrastructure. The conflict geography expands beyond Gulf shipping to sovereign state infrastructure.
House votes to end US involvement in Iran war
The House passes a war powers resolution (215–208, 4 Republicans crossing) directing Trump to withdraw from Iran or win Congressional authorisation. The resolution would require Congressional approval (war declaration or AUMF) to continue hostilities. Trump has indicated he will veto it. The political signal is real — Trump's authority to continue the war is no longer uncontested within his own party.
Iran submits 10-point proposal
Iran rejects the temporary ceasefire and delivers its own 10-point proposal via Pakistan. Demands include: solution to all regional conflicts (Gaza, Lebanon, broader), lifting of sanctions, reconstruction support, and a protocol for reopening Hormuz on terms Iran controls. The grinding strategy is confirmed. Iran's position improves every week the conflict continues.
What's coming — Projected timeline for the UK and Europe
Note: Projections are based on structural analysis, not predictions. The underlying mechanisms are well-understood; the timing is uncertain. The food price trajectory is the most confirmed of the forward projections — it is embedded in the growing season and cannot be easily reversed.
Bank of England rate decision
The BoE's next rate decision. Raising rates into a supply shock is the wrong call mathematically (the problem is supply, not demand), but the BoE may do it anyway if inflation expectations are moving. Watch the decision and the statement — the language will signal how seriously the BoE is taking the energy shock versus the demand outlook.
Food prices begin showing at retail level
The first visible food price movements at retail level. The urea price doubling and the growing season disruption are already embedded in the system. What gets planted in spring 2026 gets harvested in autumn 2026. The food price effect won't be visible until August, but the mechanism is set now. This is not speculative — it is the physical consequence of the Hormuz closure.
Stage 6: Company failures and short-time working
Energy-intensive industries, transport operators, food manufacturers face the combination of rising input costs and constrained supply. Businesses that cannot pass costs on and cannot access inputs begin to fail. Employment effects follow: reduced hours, short-time working, job losses. The Murphy seven-stage cascade reaches Stage 6 if the Hormuz situation is still unresolved.
Stage 7: Banking crisis — Murphy's ceiling case
If the cascade plays out fully, the Murphy seven-stage framework suggests a banking crisis is possible by Christmas 2026. Companies fail. Mortgages go delinquent. Banks that have been weakened by the earlier stages face a second-order crisis. This is the ceiling case — the worst path in the framework. Whether it plays out depends on how fast the cascade moves and whether the Hormuz situation resolves.
Food catastrophe peak
The spring/summer 2027 harvest is the structural deadline. The disrupted 2026 growing season produces a lower yield. Food prices peak at retail level. The combination of the energy shock, the fertiliser disruption, and the growing season failure creates the most significant food price increase in decades. This is the most confirmed of the forward projections — it is already embedded in the system and cannot be easily reversed.
Europe builds state capacity as hedge against US unreliability
EU military aid rose 67% in 2025. The EU approved a 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine for 2026–27. Europe is rebuilding institutional capacity as the US dismantles its own. Whether this is sufficient is an open question. The direction is clear and it matters for the UK's position — post-Brexit, the UK has less structural relationship with the EU as a counterweight and more dependence on the US relationship.
Wildcard: False flag scenario remains live
A Gulf of Tonkin-style incident in Hormuz — something dramatic enough to justify full US military escalation — would blow the seven-stage framework apart and produce a qualitatively different outcome. The window runs roughly through March 2027. Whether it happens depends on factors outside the economic cascade. This is not included in the central projection but is the most significant tail risk.
The underlying mechanism
The food price trajectory is not speculative. It is the physical consequence of decisions that have already been made. The Hormuz closure has already happened. The urea prices have already doubled. The 2026 growing season has already been disrupted. What happens in the food system between now and spring/summer 2027 is largely determined by events that are already in motion.
The timeline above is not a prediction that everything will go wrong. It is a map of what the compounding cascades look like if the Hormuz situation is not resolved and the ceasefire architecture remains as unreliable as it has been to date. The mechanisms are well-understood. The question is timing, not direction.
Follow the blog for updates as events develop.